TTM Squeeze Watch - Megacaps Coil While the Market Splits After the Fed Hike

The quarter ends today with the market doing two different things at once. The Nasdaq is within about 1% of its high. The Dow and the Russell 2000 are sliding. Gold has lost almost a quarter of its value from the peak, and the dollar just printed a 52-week high.

The TTM Squeeze is a good way to see that split, because it asks one simple question of every chart: is volatility compressed, and if it was, which way did it break? We ran the same squeeze calculation the Signum Lab scanner uses on 41 of the most-watched tickers - the index ETFs, every sector fund, the megacaps, gold, bonds, the dollar and crypto. Below is what came back.

If you are new to the indicator, start with What a TTM Squeeze Is and How to Trade It. The short version: when the Bollinger Bands contract inside the Keltner Channels, price is coiling. When they push back out, the squeeze "fires" and the stored-up move is released.

What changed in the world: the Fed hiked

On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The vote was 12-0, the statement said inflation "remains elevated", and the median projection points to one more hike before the year is out. The next meeting is October 27-28.

A hiking Fed does three predictable things, and all three are visible in the charts:

• The dollar gets stronger. UUP, the dollar ETF, closed today at a 52-week high, up 2.3% on the month.
• Bonds fall as yields rise. TLT is down 5.7% in a month and 15.5% below its 52-week high.
• Gold and silver lose their bid. GLD is 23% below its high and SLV 48% below, and both fired their squeezes to the downside yesterday.

Stocks have not reacted as one market. That is the interesting part.

Tech already fired, and fired up

The leaders did not wait. The squeeze on QQQ, XLK and SMH fired seven sessions ago, and all three broke upward:

• QQQ - fired 7 bars ago, momentum positive and rising, about 1% off its high, +3.2% on the month.
• XLK - fired 7 bars ago, +5.0% on the month, 1.2% off its high.
• SMH (semiconductors) - fired 7 bars ago, +9.4% on the month.
• AMD - +30% in a month, fired 11 bars ago.
• META - +26.7% in a month. It jumped nearly 13% in a single week on excitement around its Muse AI agent.

This is what a textbook squeeze release looks like: a coil, a break in the direction of the momentum histogram, and follow-through. For anyone looking for a fresh entry, though, these names are no longer coiled. They are extended. The setup already happened.

The megacaps that are still coiled

This is the list worth watching. Several of the largest stocks in the world are sitting in an active daily squeeze, some of them for more than a month:

• MSFT - mid squeeze, 25 bars. Price above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, momentum positive and rising.
• NVDA - squeeze on for 23 bars, plus a weekly squeeze 13 weeks long. Momentum positive and rising, 3.1% off its high.
• GOOGL - mid squeeze, 21 bars, with a weekly squeeze underneath. Momentum positive but flattening.
• TSLA - mid squeeze, 20 bars. Momentum negative, price below both EMAs, 27.6% off its high.
• AMZN - squeeze on for 18 bars. Momentum negative and falling, price below both EMAs.
• AVGO - squeeze on for 14 bars, momentum positive and rising, but price still below both EMAs and 27% off its high.
• LLY - mid squeeze, 7 bars, momentum strongly positive and rising.

Notice how they divide. MSFT and NVDA have the ingredients the checklist asks for: a long coil, momentum above zero and rising, and price above a rising moving average. TSLA and AMZN are coiled too, but with momentum below zero and price under the averages. A squeeze does not choose a direction. The histogram does, and right now it points different ways for different megacaps.

A squeeze that has been building for weeks is not a signal to buy. It is a signal that a move is coming. The momentum histogram and the trend tell you which way to lean.

The S&P 500 is coiled on two timeframes

SPY has been in a daily squeeze for 23 bars and a weekly squeeze for 6 weeks, sitting just 2% below its high. Its momentum is still positive but has started to fall, and price has slipped under the 20-day EMA while holding above the 50-day.

That is the index balancing between the two stories above: the tech names pulling it up and everything else pulling it down. A daily and weekly squeeze at the same time is one of the more reliable signs that a larger move is being stored up. Which way it goes will likely depend on whether the coiled megacaps follow tech or follow the rest of the market.

Everything else already broke down

Outside of tech the picture is very different. These squeezes fired too, but to the downside, and every one of these charts is below both its 20- and 50-day EMAs:

• IWM (small caps) - fired 21 bars ago, -5.5% on the month
• DIA (Dow) - fired 15 bars ago, -4.3%
• XLF (financials) - fired 10 bars ago, -7.5%
• KRE (regional banks) - fired 5 bars ago, -5.6%
• XLB (materials) - -7.6%, XLRE (real estate) - -7.3%, XLY (consumer discretionary) - -6.6%, XLU (utilities) - -6.6%, XLP (staples) - -5.2%

Rate-sensitive sectors - banks, real estate, utilities, small caps - are exactly the ones a hiking Fed hurts most. The squeezes fired in the direction the macro was already pushing.

Two sector funds are still coiled: XLV (health care, 5 bars) and XLI (industrials, 3 bars), both with momentum below zero. XLC (communication services) has the longest coil on the board: 29 bars daily and 34 weeks on the weekly chart.

Crypto: fired up, still far from home

Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all fired upward about 10 days ago and are above their 20- and 50-day EMAs. BTC is up 7% on the month, ETH 8.8% and SOL 16.1%. But they remain well below their highs: BTC 33%, ETH 43% and SOL 50%. The squeeze says the short-term move is up; the bigger chart says it is a recovery, not a new trend yet.

How to use this list

1. Separate "already fired" from "still coiled." QQQ, SMH and AMD are momentum trades now, not squeeze setups. The coiled names are where the next release is still ahead.
2. Let momentum pick the side. MSFT and NVDA lean up; TSLA and AMZN lean down. Do not trade a squeeze against its own histogram.
3. Respect the calendar. Q3 earnings season starts in mid-October and the Fed meets again October 27-28. Long coils often resolve on exactly these kinds of events.
4. Know your exit before you enter. A squeeze that fires the wrong way is the most common way this setup loses money.

You can check any of these tickers yourself. The scanner finds every stock in an active squeeze across NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX, and its Check a ticker box tells you exactly which filters a symbol passes and which it fails. To see the squeeze and momentum on a single chart, open it on the dashboard.

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Readings use daily and weekly bars through the September 30, 2026 close. The TTM Squeeze tiers are the scanner's own: "high" is the tightest compression, "low" the loosest. This post is market commentary, not investment advice.